Regarding the real estate glut in China. I am wondering why doesn’t the government buy the properties that don’t get sold and give them for free to couples with at least three children? Wouldn’t that create a good incentive to stop the rapid demographic decline?
Well, the moral hazard can be solved by having the government buy at prices where the developers would make a loss. I didn’t know about your point 1, and yes, housing costs are part of the problem for raising kids, so the incentive may be small. It amazes me that the Chinese government has been able to orchestrate the economy so successfully but still not well enough despite the data it keeps.
1. Government uses the real estate market as a mechanism to boost / tighten economy (by changing policies around ownerships, sale, etc.)
2. If developers know they can get financing to build and government can provide downside protection as the buyer of last resort, creates moral hazard of heads I win, tails I don't lose
3. Housing is only one part of costs for raising a child (true globally) - schooling, healthcare, extracurricular, etc.
It also depends on the neighbourhood of course. On the uncrowded unhurried elevated highways everyone drove exactly 80k/h for fear of an instant penalty I suspect. On the ground there were extensive efforts to build green spaces, parks, bike paths, planting large trees, etc. I was impressed. Green spaces plus the preponderance of EVs on the roads made the place seem quiet and clean. I liked Shanghai and never got to the Bund tourist zone.
City center was still pretty bad. I stayed near an exit of Yan'an Road Highway. During rush hour, just car lights and no cars were moving. That's every weekday.
Clean yes, Chinese drivers are still aggressive with lots of honking. And EVs can get a license immediately (ICEs need to bid for licenses), suddenly number of cars on the road multiplied when the policy rolled out. Yes on there are many EVs on the road in China.
Interesting insights. Wonder what actual post-grad unemployment figures are like there. Everyone complains in the US that it’s bad but I have a feeling we’re relatively privileged.
Talking out of my rear end here: The Chinese produce too many grads of the same major (just typical mindset of majoring in things that make money instead of fulfillment, of course there's certain extent of that everywhere), so before downturn, many grads have trouble finding jobs as there are only that many finance jobs in China.
Yes, we are relatively privileged and we leave schools more ready for the workplace as the schooling focuses on the why (critical thinking) instead of the what (formula).
It's also this very comment that partially got Jack Ma in trouble, so I will refrain from commenting further. :D
Regarding the real estate glut in China. I am wondering why doesn’t the government buy the properties that don’t get sold and give them for free to couples with at least three children? Wouldn’t that create a good incentive to stop the rapid demographic decline?
Well, the moral hazard can be solved by having the government buy at prices where the developers would make a loss. I didn’t know about your point 1, and yes, housing costs are part of the problem for raising kids, so the incentive may be small. It amazes me that the Chinese government has been able to orchestrate the economy so successfully but still not well enough despite the data it keeps.
When it comes to policymaking, the Chinese government has more motives than just the prosperity of its people - let's just leave it at that.
Few things:
1. Government uses the real estate market as a mechanism to boost / tighten economy (by changing policies around ownerships, sale, etc.)
2. If developers know they can get financing to build and government can provide downside protection as the buyer of last resort, creates moral hazard of heads I win, tails I don't lose
3. Housing is only one part of costs for raising a child (true globally) - schooling, healthcare, extracurricular, etc.
I found the traffic in Shanghai surprisingly light.
If you use Beijing as a comparison sure lol.
I use Toronto for comparison.
It also depends on the neighbourhood of course. On the uncrowded unhurried elevated highways everyone drove exactly 80k/h for fear of an instant penalty I suspect. On the ground there were extensive efforts to build green spaces, parks, bike paths, planting large trees, etc. I was impressed. Green spaces plus the preponderance of EVs on the roads made the place seem quiet and clean. I liked Shanghai and never got to the Bund tourist zone.
City center was still pretty bad. I stayed near an exit of Yan'an Road Highway. During rush hour, just car lights and no cars were moving. That's every weekday.
Clean yes, Chinese drivers are still aggressive with lots of honking. And EVs can get a license immediately (ICEs need to bid for licenses), suddenly number of cars on the road multiplied when the policy rolled out. Yes on there are many EVs on the road in China.
Yikes! Sounds bad. How does it compare to say 10 years ago? (I have only been to Shanghai once)
Shanghai traffic is never great in city center, but IMO gotten worse last few years because of the EV adoption - the multiplied effect I mentioned.
Simplistically, 5x number of cars on the road, but highway capacity hasn't gone up = traffic problem.
Thanks for your sharing. Will it become japan?
No view
Interesting piece Richard! I’ve been travelling around in China too on a work trip and on-the-ground is def a different China than seen afar. Re: your healthcare observations public v private, I wrote about this on on my substack where I cover China’s health system https://open.substack.com/pub/chinahealthpulse/p/five-biggest-myths-i-see-about-chinas?r=1ijwi&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false
Interesting, will give it a read! Thanks for sharing.
Thank you! Look fwd to thoughts
I loved it. It's well written, particularly how you frame "what does it mean for [XYZ parties who want to do business in China on healthcare]".
You might have found a niche where you can dominate, keep up the great work!
Helpful real world observations. There are a lot of articles about ‘collapse’ so this was refreshingly unbiased
Thanks
Great Article! Thanks
I am glad! :)
Interesting insights. Wonder what actual post-grad unemployment figures are like there. Everyone complains in the US that it’s bad but I have a feeling we’re relatively privileged.
Can't trust any official data from there anyways.
Talking out of my rear end here: The Chinese produce too many grads of the same major (just typical mindset of majoring in things that make money instead of fulfillment, of course there's certain extent of that everywhere), so before downturn, many grads have trouble finding jobs as there are only that many finance jobs in China.
Yes, we are relatively privileged and we leave schools more ready for the workplace as the schooling focuses on the why (critical thinking) instead of the what (formula).
It's also this very comment that partially got Jack Ma in trouble, so I will refrain from commenting further. :D
Very interesting insight, thank you for sharing. Boots on the ground intel is always best.
Sure thing. I like to nerd out on trips, business analyst for life.
What does RMB mean?
Renminbi